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October 19, 2010

Who’s going to be there at the end? So much football left

The shakeout in the BCS will continue this weekend. Auburn vs. LSU is not a total elimination game, but it puts the loser at a disadvantage. Still, both LSU and Auburn will have Alabama left among others after they play each other, so it’s far from over.
Cam Newton is my leader in the Heisman Trophy race. His numbers are unreal. He’s run for 850 yards (11th in the country) and scored 11 times rushing. He’s passed for 13 more and has completed 65. 57% of his passes. He’s second in the country in passing efficiency to Kellen Moore of Boise State, another guy who is neck and neck with Cam but just behind him in my opinion LaMichael James is third as he has run for 848 yards and nine tds. The key is each players’ team winning along with a good performance individually. If Auburn gets it done against LSU and Cam has another stellar performance he will solidify  his place as the Heisman leader.

But now Cam faces an LSU defense that is third in the country in total defense allowing 242 yards per game. They’re sixth in rushing defense and 8th in passing defense. Auburn is 63rd in total defense, 15th against the run and 108th against the pass, so LSU has the advantage there. Nobody has been able to stop Cam, but dtackle Drake Nevis (11.5 tackles for loss, five sacks) and lb Kelvin Sheppard (66 tackles, 33rd in NCAA) along with db Morris Claiborne (four ints) and all everything db Patrick Patterson (two ints) are going to do everything they can to neutralize Cam.

Auburn is banged up in the secondary with Aairon Savage out for a while (broken ankle), six weeks, maybe the rest of the season. That’s tough for him and Auburn. Savage came back for a sixth season and was a total team player. Also, T’Sharvan Bell is banged up. Zac Etheridge and the veterans and maybe some young ones are going to have to step up. The Auburn pass rush could be critical Saturday. LSU will employ its two quarterbacks, Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. Lee has come on passing the ball and Jefferson is a great athlete. Terrence Toliver has 22 catches for 286 and two tds, Russell Shepard has 20-142 1 td and Rueben Randle has 19-271, 1 td. If Lee and Jefferson can get these guys the ball, they will produce. They are excellent receivers. LSU also runs the ball well. Stevan Ridley has rushed for 686 yards and six tds.

Auburn’s running game will be important. Michael Dyer (443 yard), Onterio McCalebb (374)  and Mario Fannin (224) will have to make an impact to take the pressure off Newton. You know Darvin Adams will come to play. LSU will probably be all over him, so T-Zach, Emory Blake and Phillip Lutzenkirchen will have to step it up.

It’s going to be awesome down on the Plains. Auburn is fourth in the BCS and LSU is sixth. This is as big as it gets. Of course both teams have to play Alabama, so nothing is decided after this game, but a victory would help each teams’ cause.

I went to the Alabama-Ole Miss game last Saturday Night and really enjoyed the atmosphere. The stadium, which holds almost 102,000, was electric. The starters on offense, defense and kickers introduce themselves on the scoreboard which is fun. The music is great. Bryant-Denny is just a great atmosphere for college football.

Alabama won 23-10, but didn’t look that great doing it. There was a hangover from South Carolina and the two games prior to that (Arkansas and Florida), and they didn’t look that sharp. The defense played well but I don’t know if that had more to do with them or how bad Masoli was. He can’t get it done against the better defenses in the SEC, at least Alabama and LSU.

I just don’t know what has happened to the running game. Ingram and Richardson just aren’t playing at a high level right now. The line lost D.J. Fluker to injury, but still, they’ve got four of those guys and their backups are pretty solid. They just don’t look crisp on offense. The chemistry is not there right now. Alabama can win ugly the rest of the way and go back to Atlanta and possibly play for the national championship. They should be fine against Tennessee this weekend, but they’ve got to play better. With Auburn and LSU coming up, they’ve got to get better on offense. I’m not sure the defense is that great either right now. South Carolina really exposed them, so they’ve got to get it together fast or they won’t be in Atlanta. The Tide also has Miss. State coming to Tuscaloosa and that’s no bargain either. State is playing good ball, they can play defense and have gotten it together on offense. Vic Ballard is running very well and Chris Relf has found his niche as a quarterback. Alabama just has to focus on getting better this weekend, getting out of Knoxville with a victory, and preparing well for LSU Nov. 6. They have a bye week after Tenn to recharge the batteries and that may be just what they need. Got to take care of business first this weekend and play better or they’re not going to beat LSU and Auburn.

The SEC East is really wide open. Georgia got back into the mix–even though they have three losses–with pretty impressive wins over UT and Vandy. The competition wasn’t that great in those games, but Aaron Murray is showing he’s going to be a great qb in the conference and already is. With A.J. Green back and Washaun Ealey running well and not fumbling, Georgia can be right in the thick of things at the end. If their players stay eligible. Never know what the Georgia players will do next. The Dawgs have to go to Kentucky this Saturday and they could very well lose that. South Carolina has two losses and they have to play Arkansas at home and Florida in the Swamp, so there are no guarantees there. South Carolina could be the best team in the East and not win it. They need to get Marcus Lattimore back. Not sure about his status this weekend but they need him. They play Vandy Sat and though Vandy looked terrible against Georgia last weekend, they have beaten SC twice in the last four years and only lost 14-10 last year in Columbia. If Lattimore plays, SC wins. If he doesn’t it could be more interesting.

Florida is not totally out of it. They play Georgia in Jacksonville Oct. 30 and play at home against SC Nov. 13. Also have to go to Vandy Nov. 6. If the Gators can somehow find an offense, which is highly doubtful at this point, they could possibly win those games. But the Gators look terrible on offense. Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey will be back soon so that’ll help a lot. John Brantley hasn’t lived up to expectations. Kentucky is not totally out of it either. With a win over Georgia Saturday they’re right back in the thick of it. They beat South Carolina. They have to first beat Georgia then win at Miss. State, at home against Vandy and at Tenn. So they’ve got a tough road ahead. If they beat Georgia this Sat though, they’re in the race.

Nationally, Oklahoma plays at Missouri this weekend and that will be tough for OU. Missouri is second in the country in total defense. I see an upset coming. Oregon is no guarantee either. They have to play at home against UCLA this Thursday (no slouch; beat Texas soundly at UT), then they have to go to USC which will be tough. Everybody says how down the Trojans are, but I see them giving Oregon a tough game. They have to play Washington at home, go to Cal, go to Oregon State and host Arizona. They’ve got a lot of work left. They’ve got the offense, but not sure they have enough defense to get it done.

Boise State leads the nation in total defense. You put that together with Moore, who has 55 touchdown passes and four ints over the last two years, and you have a very good football team. Their two wide receivers, Titus Young (33-581 4 tds) and Austin Pettis (25-387, 4 tds) are NFL-caliber players. This team is for real in my opinion. They beat a Virginia Tech team whom everybody dogged after they lost to James Madison. The James Madison loss was terrible, but the Hokies haven’t lost again. They won at NC State and defeated a Boston College team that took Florida State to the wire in Tallahassee last Sat. They are a solid team at 5-2 and 3-0 in the ACC.They could win the ACC again and possibly get to the Orange Bowl. Oregon State is a quality squad. Boise doesn’t play even close to  the sked that Alabama, Auburn and LSU play, but they are a legitimate national power. If things work out they could be in the national championship game and I think they would deserve it. They, TCU and Utah are quality non-BCS teams that deserve consideration for the national championship. I’ve doubted Boise before they beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Some people were saying TCU was the best team in the country and should be playing Alabama for the national championship and Boise beat them. Then they beat Va Tech this year and I picked Va Tech. I am no longer doubting Boise. They also beat Oregon a couple of years ago. They could be there at the end and could win it.

Iowa may be too far back in the BCS at 15 at this point but they play 13th Wisconsin and seventh Michigan State at home, so they could get back in the discussion with some losses by teams ahead of them. And Michigan State could get there, but have to play at Iowa which some people consider one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten.

There is a lot left to decide. It’ll be fun for people who write about sports and nerve wrecking for fans of these teams. That is what makes college football so great.

Will have predictions Friday afternoon. Wanted to watch all the coach’s shows before making a decision. Will have picks up about 3:30 or four Friday.

(Drake Nevis and the LSU defense will try to slow down Cam.)

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